New voters expected to play big role in U.S. Senate election, analysis finds

High turnover among New Hampshire voters will be at play in the upcoming U.S. Senate election, according to recent data analysis by the Carsey School of Public Policy.

Incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan won the 2016 election by just 1,017 votes. But nearly a third of voters now didn’t cast a ballot in that election, either because they were too young or did not yet reside in New Hampshire, according to the analysis by UNH demographer Ken Johnson and political scientists Andrew Smith and Dante Scala.

The data analysis highlights the high turnover of New Hampshire voters and finds that New Hampshire’s population is among the most mobile in the country. Of the new voters, the analysis found that around 8 percent are younger voters who are now of age and tend to be more liberal than established voters in the state. Around 19 percent are recent migrants to New Hampshire who are less liberal and vote similarly to the state’s established voters.

The analysis used population estimates from the U.S. Census to determine how many migrant voters moved to New Hampshire from 2017 to 2022 and how many voters are between 18 and 23.